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Following last week’s lull in global macro, it’s a busy start to the week in which we get the latest deluge of global flash PMIs, while the US economic calendar is loaded with New Home Sales data, Trade Balance, Initial Claims, UMichigan sentiment and the revised US Q1 GDP print on Friday. But perhaps the most expected event will be Yellen’s speech on Friday at Harvard’s Radcliffe, where the Fed chairman is expected to reveal some more hints on the upcoming rate hike.
This morning in Europe we got the flash May manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s set to be released which as we reported earlier showed an unexpected decline in Europe’s business outlook to 16 month lows. In the US we’ll get the flash manufacturing PMI reading, while later on this afternoon the final revision to Euro area consumer confidence reading will be released.
Tuesday kicks off in Germany with the final revision to Q1 GDP along with the various growth components. French confidence indicators and UK net borrowing data is also due, followed by the German ZEW survey reading for May. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and new home sales data for April.
In Asia on Wednesday the focus will be on the China consumer sentiment data. During the European session the main focus in on the May IFO survey out of Germany where little change is expected. In the US on Wednesday the remainder of the flash May PMI’s are due out (services and composite) along with the advance goods trade balance for April and FHFA house price index.
Thursday morning starts in the UK with the preliminary reading for Q1 GDP for the UK. In the US the big focus will be on the preliminary releases for durable and capital goods. Initial jobless claims, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey are also due out. It’s set to be a busy end to the week on Friday. During the Asia session we’ll get the latest CPI data for Japan along with industrial profits for China. During the European session various regional confidence indicators will be released.
The big data for the week is arguably reserved for Friday afternoon though with the second revision of Q1 GDP for the US due (expected to be revised up to +0.8% qoq from +0.5%). The final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment print will also be released.
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Focusing just on the US, here is the full breakdown from Goldman:
Monday, May 23
- 06:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will deliver a presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Beijing. President Bullard recently said that the June FOMC remains a “live meeting.”
- 08:00 AM San Francisco Fed Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will speak about “evolving challenges and approaches to monetary policy” at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Last week, President Williams said that two to three rate increases this year “definitely still makes sense.”
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 50.8)
- 6:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at The Philadelphia Club in Philadelphia. Last month, President Harker said “it’s possible” that the Fed could hike at least three times this year. Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, May 24
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, May (consensus +9, last +14): Consensus expects the Richmond Fed survey to move down to +9 from +14 in April.
- 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS flat, consensus +1.8%, last -1.5%): We expect new home sales to be flat this month, below consensus estimates for a moderate gain. Housing starts rebounded in April and the Homebuilders’ survey was flat at a still-strong level. New home sales have drifted lower over the past three months, but remain up 5.4% over the past year.
Wednesday, May 25
- 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, April (GS -$57.9bn, consensus -$60.0 last -$56.9bn): Data on inbound container traffic and railcar loadings point to only a limited widening in the goods trade balance, which narrowed sharply in March. The advance goods trade balance is a new report released prior to the full trade report, which also includes trade in services.
- 09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Q&A is expected.
- 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, March (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%)
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.0, last 52.8)
- 11:40 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will participate in a conversation at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in Bismarck. Q&A is expected.
- 02:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Greater Houston Partnership Thought Leader Series. President Kaplan recently said a rate hike may be warranted in the “not-too-distant future.” Q&A is expected.
Thursday, May 26
- 06:10 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will speak at Harvard’s Radcliffe Day.
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, April (GS +2.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%); Core capital goods orders, April (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, April (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.1%, last flat): We expect a solid gain in core capital goods orders and a decent gain in shipments as well in April. Although the ISM manufacturing index’s production component was a bit softer this month, other industrial data were stronger.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 21 (consensus 275k, last 278k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 14 (consensus 2,142k, last 2,152k): Consensus expects initial jobless claims to edge down to 275k. Initial claims declined last week, as an earlier spike in filings in New York reversed.
- 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (consensus +0.7%, last +1.4%): Consensus expects a modest increase in pending home sales in April. We have found pending home sales—based on contract signings rather than closings—to be a decent leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
- 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus -3, last -4)
- 12:15 PM Fed Governor Jerome Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Powell will deliver a speech titled “Recent Economic Developments, the Productive Potential of the Economy, and Monetary Policy: Learning from the Recovery” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Friday, May 27
- 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q1 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.5%): Personal consumption, Q1 (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.9%): We expect modest upgrades to Q1 GDP in the second release. Q1 GDP is likely to be revised up by 0.3pp to +0.8%, while personal consumption is likely to be marked up by 0.2pp to +2.1%. We also expect a slight upgrade to Q1 residential investment.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), May (GS 95.0 forecast, consensus 95.4, last 95.8): We expect a slightly below-consensus final print of 95 on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in May. Other high-frequency consumer confidence data point to a mild decline from the preliminary estimate.
- 10:30 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be presented with Harvard’s Radcliffe Medal, followed by “a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements” with Professor Gregory Mankiw.
Finally, a summary table of the key events from BofA:
Source: DB, GS, BofA
via zerohedge